Energy expert Bornface Zulu has warned that Zambia risks being economically and strategically sidelined if it fails to accelerate its participation in the global renewable energy value chain, following China’s decision to abolish value-added tax (VAT) rebates on renewable energy exports.
In a statement issued to ZANIS today, Mr Zulu said China’s policy change, which is set to take effect on April 1, 2026, will increase production costs for Chinese manufacturers and likely push up global prices for renewable energy technologies such as solar panels and related equipment.
“Countries that fall behind in the energy transition will be dictated to and bullied by those that take the lead,” Mr Zulu said.
He described the move by China as a “wake-up call” for Zambia.
He stated that China is currently the world’s largest exporter of renewable energy technologies, adding that the removal of VAT rebates is expected to raise export prices, a development he said could have knock-on effects for countries like Zambia that rely heavily on imported renewable energy equipment.
Mr. Zulu noted that Zambia was already grappling with high energy costs, and further price increases could slow the country’s adoption of clean energy solutions by households and businesses.
He argued that Zambia’s vulnerability was largely self-inflicted, pointing to the country’s continued dependence on imported finished products despite its vast mineral wealth.
According to Mr Zulu, Zambia, together with the Democratic Republic of Congo, holds close to 30 percent of the world’s reserves of critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies, including copper, cobalt, lithium, uranium, zinc, and iron.
“Despite this advantage, Zambia has failed to develop significant local industries to process these minerals. We export raw materials and import finished products at premium prices, locking ourselves into dependency,” he said.
He warned that such dependency exposes the country to external policy shifts, trade disruptions, and unfavorable negotiations, particularly as global competition for energy technologies intensifies.
He urged the Zambian government to respond strategically by re-assessing trade and energy relations with China, diversifying renewable energy supply chains, and investing in domestic manufacturing capacity.
Among the measures proposed were negotiating bilateral arrangements to mitigate higher import costs, expanding partnerships with renewable energy suppliers in Europe, the United States, and the Middle East, and strengthening regional cooperation through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union.
Mr Zulu said regional collaboration could improve bargaining power, support shared infrastructure development, and reduce overreliance on any single market.
“The global energy landscape is changing rapidly, and Zambia must change with it. The choice is clear; remain passive and be sidelined, or act decisively and convert mineral wealth into industrial power,” Mr Zulu said.
Last month China announced that from April 1, 2026, it was abolishing VAT export rebates for 249 product categories, including solar panels and solar cells, to curb overcapacity and reduce trade disputes.
